Trump is ostensibly headed to Pennsylvania to help shore up support for the staggered campaigns of Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, whom he backed in the Republican primary races. But Trump is expected to exonerate President Biden, the Justice Department and the FBI in a speech that comes two days after Biden called Trump and his movement an urgent threat to democracy. Here are five things to watch for:
How Trump is handling the FBI investigation
Saturday’s event in Wilkes-Barre will be Trump’s first political gathering since FBI agents raided his Mar-a-Lago estate on Aug. 8. The former president has spoken extensively about the investigation on Truth Social, his fledgling social media platform, but has yet to speak about it in front of crowds of activist supporters, where Trump tends to use his most bombastic and inflammatory rhetoric. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has described in filings how it spent months unsuccessfully trying to get sensitive government documents back from Trump after he left office, culminating in the August investigation. A drafted affidavit said the government received 15 boxes from Mar-a-Lago containing dozens of documents marked “secret” or “top secret,” raising concerns that additional highly sensitive material was still at the residence and prompting the investigation. The legal battle to keep Trump’s government materials continues in court as his team tries to withdraw the government’s investigation. But Trump on Saturday is likely to whip his supporters into a frenzy, railing against the politicization of the FBI and the Justice Department and claiming he is the victim of a political witch hunt aimed at dissuading him from running for president in 2024.
How Trump responds to Biden’s warning that he is a threat to democracy
Trump will travel to a city just outside Biden’s hometown of Scranton, two days after the president spoke in Philadelphia and described the former president’s political movement as a serious threat to American democracy. “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our democracy,” Biden said in Philadelphia on Thursday, clarifying on Friday that he was not saying all Trump voters were a threat to the country. Biden highlighted Trump’s penchant for questioning election results, promoting conspiracy theories and attacking law enforcement, most recently over the investigation of his Mar-a-Lago property. Trump is likely to respond to Biden when he takes the stage Saturday night, according to an official close to the former president, calling the president’s remarks a divisive attack on millions of Trump voters. “Someone should explain to Joe Biden, slowly but surely, that MAGA means, as powerfully as simple words can, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump posted on Truth Social after Biden’s speech. “If he doesn’t want to make America great again, which in word, deed and thought he doesn’t, then he certainly shouldn’t be representing the United States of America!” The expected showdown between Biden and Trump underscores the extent to which the White House is trying to make the midterm referendum on the former president as it backs candidates like Oz and Mastriano, the latter of whom has repeatedly challenged the 2020 election results. It also serves as a preview of a potential 2024 presidential race, as Trump mulls another bid and Biden says he will seek re-election. A Wall Street Journal poll published Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points in a hypothetical 2020 rematch.
Trump wants to boost Oz and Mastriano
The primary purpose of Saturday’s rally is for Trump to boost the candidacies of Oz and Mastriano, as polls show both trailing their Democratic rivals. Oz, in particular, has struggled to gain traction since Trump’s endorsement helped him win a competitive race against David McCormick, who had the backing of other Trump administration officials. A FiveThirtyEight polling average showed Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leading Oz by 8 points, 48 to 40, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report last week downgraded the race from “tossing” to “lean Democratic.” Fetterman has spent limited time on the campaign trail in recent weeks as he recovers from a stroke he suffered shortly before the primary, which Oz’s campaign seized on. However, Oz has struggled to win over voters because of his loose ties to Pennsylvania, and a boost from Trump could be critical to help close the gap. Mastriano, meanwhile, has fully embraced Trump’s 2020 election rhetoric and other policies championed by the former president. Trump’s appearance Saturday is sure to further bolster support for Mastriano at the grassroots, but it remains to be seen whether he can win over enough moderate voters to defeat Democratic challenger Josh Shapiro. A poll last week by Emerson College Polling shows Shapiro, the state attorney general, has a 47-44 lead over Mastriano, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.
Trump begins his general election push
Trump has been active in the primaries, endorsing candidates and joining them in person ahead of the primary days, but Saturday will mark the former president’s first general election rally for the 2022 midterm cycle. Sources in Trump’s orbit said he is likely to travel to battleground states in the two months before Election Day, particularly states with races with supporters of the candidate likely to be competitive, such as North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia. Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, in particular, could help determine control of the Senate for the next two years, and each feature Trump-backed candidates. The former president remains very popular among Republicans, and GOP leaders will be counting on him to help boost turnout. One potential issue, however, is that Republicans tend to underperform in elections where Trump himself is not on the ballot, such as the 2018 midterm elections and recent House special elections won by Democrats. Republicans hope an active Trump in the next two months will lead to high turnout. A former Trump campaign adviser also noted that how the former president’s preferred candidates fare could be a major factor in how easily Trump is able to clear the GOP field ahead of his primary. 2024. If several of his candidates lose and his influence appears to be waning, it could encourage other Republicans interested in running for president, the official thought.
The Rally highlights the importance of Pennsylvania
Having both Trump and Biden in Pennsylvania within days of each other reinforces the political importance of the Keystone State. Trump’s rally on Saturday is flanked by two visits by Biden. The president was in Philadelphia on Thursday for his democracy speech and will travel to Pittsburgh on Monday to celebrate Labor Day. Trump may also return to the state for another rally for Oz and Mastriano before the November election. Biden to nominate environmental law expert to head powerful WHO regulatory office: Drop in monkeypox cases proves outbreak can be stopped or even eliminated Pennsylvania was pivotal in deciding the presidency in 2016 and 2020, will be a potential swing for control of the Senate in 2022, and will likely be a wild battleground in 2024. Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes, but the state was a major target of attacks from Trump and his allies after it took days to complete the vote count and determine the winner. Given the state’s rules about when it begins counting mail-in ballots and other forms of early voting, a close race could give Trump and his supporters another opening to press unsubstantiated claims of fraud should their preferred candidates to lose.
