Liz Truss, and she probably will, will not have a “personal mandate” to lead the country. Will she do what both Boris Johnson and Theresa May ended up doing and call a general election to consolidate her position? The foregoing shows that it may well. Mrs May took over from David Cameron in July 2016. As he had just won an election in 2015 and the Fixed Term Parliament Act (FTPA) was in place, he could have stayed in Number 10 unchallenged until the summer of 2020. He repeatedly said he was not interested in a snap election, but then the Conservatives unexpectedly won a by-election in Copeland, with then Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn appearing unsold to many voters. Mrs May could not resist the opportunity to strengthen her hold on office. He managed to call elections despite the FTPA in June 2017. Brenda from Bristol was famously disappointed: “Oh, not another one!” It did not end as well as Mrs May had hoped. The Conservative parliamentary majority disappeared. He was forced to do a deal to stay in power with DUP votes. Since then he has been on borrowed time. Image: Theresa May greets DUP leader Arlene Foster in Downing Street in 2017 Boris Johnson managed to force Mrs May out in July 2019. She got her job, but also inherited a lack of a majority, exacerbated by bitter divisions among Tory MPs. Once it became clear that he could not get what he wanted for Brexit through parliament, he and his then adviser Dominic Cummings went to great lengths to force an election, which was duly held in December of that year. Under the rules, the election was not due until the summer of 2022. But boosted by Mr Johnson’s personal popularity and Mr Johnson’s unpopularity, Mr Johnson was rewarded with a “tight” Conservative Labor majority of 75 plus. Image: Boris Johnson with his new MPs after the 2019 election Mr Johnson has backed a snap election, Mrs May has shown her opposition, then there is the unfortunate case of Gordon Brown who chose not to cash in on the popularity boost when he took over from Tony Blair in 2007. We will never know whether he was right that he would not have done as well as the polls suggested, although many in the Labor Party still blame him for a missed opportunity. Image: Gordon Brown in the shipping box in 2007 No elections are required until 2025 Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will inherit Boris Johnson’s comfortable majority in parliament and the prospect of more than two years in power. At the latest, the next general election need not be held before January 2025. The FTPA has been repealed, meaning it will essentially be up to the new leader if there is an early vote. During the election campaign, the two candidates gave different answers about possible early elections. Mr Sunak, the former chancellor, sidestepped the question by saying the new prime minister’s “priority must be the economic challenge” and that in any case “we will lose the election if inflation is out of control”. Liz Truss was adamant in ruling it out. He assured troops in Cheltenham “I won’t have an election before 2024” – and said no to snap elections in a quick debate. But during the six weeks of this campaign, notably in pamphlets about offsetting energy costs, she has already shown that her word that day is not necessarily her bond forever. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 2:29 Final races in the PM race Recent polls show an appetite for early voting If an Ipsos poll for the Evening Standard last week is anything to go by, Brenda from Bristol is currently in the minority. Perhaps out of anger at Mr Johnson’s ouster or perhaps out of anger at his behaviour, a plurality, 51%, favor a general election this year and that includes 40% of Conservative voters, more than the Tories’ share of he is against it. Standard arguments can be made for an early poll following a change of leader. Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has argued that “there would have to be a general election” if Boris Johnson is ousted because of the personal mandate he claimed Johnson won. Mr Rees-Mogg then emerged as a prominent Truss supporter and changed his tune when pressed on the need for an election by Talk TV’s Kate McCann. Leaders can also use the threat of elections to bring an unruly parliamentary party to heel. This leadership campaign has already exposed deep disagreements over tax and spending policy. It is not clear that either Ms Truss or Mr Sunak will be guaranteed a majority for the various emergency budget measures they have outlined. Current opinion polls show a clear lead for Labour, suggesting a snap election – perhaps even before Christmas – would be a kamikaze move. But a credible demonstration under consideration would allow the new leader to tell his or her MPs: “Get behind me or you’re going down with me.” Threats have recently had a habit of coming true, at least in Westminster. Labor sources are already saying they expect the new Tory leader and the Conservative Party to enjoy a boost in the polls. This can be an insurance policy in the hope that it doesn’t happen this time. The popularity of new leaders can be short-lived New leaders usually increase their popularity, although this may be short-lived. In the difficult times ahead for the country, Prime Minister Truss will be tempted to take advantage of any boost she receives in an attempt to consolidate her power. She would be the first Conservative leader in modern times who was not the first choice of either Tory MPs or members of her own party. Polls clearly showed that members wanted Penny Mordaunt or Kemi Badenoch as leader. In the last round of voting, Mr Sunak was supported by 137 MPs – compared to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Ms Mordant. Read more from Sky News: Court would strike ‘illegal’ inquiry into party privileges Since the Conservatives began choosing their leader this way, she would have the lowest level of support from her MPs, 31.6%, compared to 38.6% for Mr Sunak, 51.3% for Mr .Johnson, 60.5% for Mrs May, 45.5% for Mr Cameron. and even 32.5%, for the ill-fated Iain Duncan Smith, who ended up being sacked by his own party. Interestingly, IDS is expected to return to a Truss government. If, and it is a big if, the Conservatives under Ms Truss take a clear lead in the polls, she may not be able to resist the temptation of an early election. With inflation estimated to be heading towards 20% early next year, this seems an unlikely scenario. On the other hand, she’s proven to be a risk-taker to get where she is now. She could decide to bet her chips before things get even worse.
