In an interview with CNBC on Friday morning, economist and former Kremlin adviser Sergei Guriev said Western economic sanctions have created a dire situation for the Russian economy as it remains at loggerheads with the neighboring nation of Ukraine. Putin is still on the fence about another run for president in 2024 — and faces the possibility of a coup attempt by insiders wary of a recent change in Russian law that would allow him to serve until 2036, according to some in the political community. US intelligence. Given that reality, Guriev believes the government is ill-equipped to emerge from its current crisis after decades under the control of Putin, who he said has fostered an environment of paranoia that could lead the country to “North Korea on Steroids”. A future regime change could take different forms, he said, with a revolving door of despotic leaders likely ranging from military officials to ultranationalist strongmen who don’t have a good grasp of how the country works. “He built the regime in such a way that without him, the system will not work,” Guriev said. “People around him don’t trust each other, sometimes hate each other. So if he goes, the system will change in some way.” “But it won’t last long exactly,” he added, “because the system is built around Putin. Eventually I think the system will collapse. And that could take months, it could be several years. It could be the North Korea on steroids, who knows?” Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist and professor of economics at the Institute of Political Studies, poses during a photo shoot in Paris on March 16. the neighboring nation of Ukraine. Joel Saget/AFP Putin, Europe’s second-longest-serving president, has long been scrutinized by the West for his role in a violent crackdown on dissent and the regular, mysterious disappearances of his opponents in a political environment marred by rampant nepotism and corruption. But Guriev said the collapse of such a system could lead to the rise of a leader seeking to rebuild the economy, who then seeks to forge closer ties with the West. Guriev’s assessment comes amid a bleak economic outlook for Russia as Ukraine’s war effort, according to international sources, appears to be failing due to heavy casualties, supply shortages and a desperate recruitment drive to replenish frontline forces. Putin has promoted a false narrative about the impact of economic sanctions, Guriev said, adding that the Russian economy is likely to be in more dire straits than the numbers released by Putin’s government reflect. “Putin’s economy has been hit,” he told CNBC. “When you actually look at the numbers, second-quarter GDP in Russia is 6 percent below the first quarter. That’s amazing GDP speed. In annual terms, it’s going to be more than 20 percent.” Support for price caps on Russian oil has begun to gain traction among G7 leaders, potentially putting additional pressure on the regime while reducing the economic pressure Russia has been able to exert on other European countries.
