Aurora Energy Research estimates that the UK will need to import at least 10% of its natural gas from the EU this winter to meet demand.
However, S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that Britain will be a net exporter to the EU this winter because LNG shipments will continue to arrive.
However, some imports from the EU are still likely to be needed on the isolated cold days.
Ying Chin Chou, a senior analyst at S&P, said that every one-degree drop in temperature could increase demand for heating gas by 10-15 million cubic meters (mcm).
He added: “Demand can escalate quite quickly.”
S&P believes gas demand in Britain will in any case be 40mcmd below normal this winter, or about 15% less, as rising energy bills cause cuts in demand, among other factors.
Last week, Centrica won permission to reopen the Rough gas storage area in the North Sea, which closed in 2017.
However, it remains in talks with ministers about long-term financial support for the site and has not set a date for its reopening.
John Redwood, the Tory MP expected to return to government if Liz Truss wins the Tory leadership contest on Monday, said it was a strategic “mistake” not to have more storage.
“Of course, I think we need more gas storage, but my first push for many years has been to get more of our own gas out of the North Sea and onshore where local communities go with it.
“But the UK’s position is much stronger than that of Germany or Italy, which were much more dependent on Russian gas.”
A spokesman for the Business Department said: “When the market price is higher in Europe, natural gas flows to the continent. When the price is higher in the UK, gas flows back home. This is entirely market driven, not government driven.
“Britain is at a strategic advantage compared to other countries in Europe. The UK’s secure and diverse energy supplies will ensure that households, businesses and industry can be confident that they can get their electricity and gas needed.”
