The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows that while 49% of people who voted Tory in 2019 thought Truss “looks like a prime minister-in-waiting” at the start of August, this had fallen to just 31% by 30 August. Similarly, while 55% said she was competent at the start of August, this had fallen to 35% among 2019 Tory voters by the end of the month. And while 52% of the same voters thought he was likable in early August, only 31% felt that way by the end of the month. Tricks issues The previous poll, published on August 3, came after Truss had been tipped for two weeks as the front runner among party members against former chancellor Rishi Sunak. Instead, the subsequent poll came after weeks of worrying stories about energy bills and a lack of clarity from both Truss and Sunak about how they would help people. At the same time, Labor had published its proposals to freeze energy bills in the autumn, protecting people from 80% rises, which initially helped its electoral performance. While Truss’ ratings on a number of questions had fallen sharply in August, Sunak’s had fallen much less. Remarkably, 35% of Tory voters in 2019 said in the latest poll – towards the end of the leadership contest – that Sunak “looks like a prime minister in waiting” – while only 31% held that view of Truss. The poll suggests Truss may have benefited from the fact that many party members voted in early August before her ratings plummeted. Opinium’s James Crouch said: “If Liz Truss becomes prime minister on Monday, it will be because she has captured the Tories’ interest at a pivotal point in the campaign. However, it will arrive in Downing Street with much of that initial enthusiasm on the wane, seen even by Conservatives as irrelevant and unpopular.” Overall Labor is 4 points ahead on 38% (-1 a fortnight ago), while the Tories have increased their share of the vote to 34% (+3) compared to mid-August.
