In total, the value of UK military support to Ukraine has totaled £2.3 billion to date. Over the past six weeks the government has promised to supply 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 smaller L119 105mm guns. The M109 looks a lot like a tank, but is designed to fire larger shells at much greater distances to bombard enemy positions. Consequently, it is more lightly armored than a proper main battle tank. Firing high-explosive shells, it has a range of 21 km (13 mi) and requires a crew of six. The L119 Light Gun, so named because it weighs less than competing designs and is therefore easier to move, is similar to the type of gun that is fired from Edinburgh Castle at 1pm each day. It is small enough to be lifted by helicopter or towed by a road vehicle and has a range of 11.4 km (7.1 mi) using 105 mm shells. If this sounds like Britain and its allies have dropped everything, including the kitchen sink on Ukraine, there is some truth to this view. Indeed, the variety of military hardware being shipped to Kyiv may pose its own training, familiarization and ease of resupply problem. A Rusi report from July on ammunition supply difficulties facing Ukraine’s military said: “One challenge here is that NATO standardization is not very standardized, with different countries’ howitzers not only having completely different requirements maintenance but also use different charges, fuses and sometimes shells. “The current approach of each country donating a battery of weapons in a piecemeal fashion is quickly turning into a logistical nightmare for Ukrainian forces, with each battery requiring a separate training, maintenance and logistics pipeline. “Making support to Ukraine sustainable requires the provision of one or two types of weapons and countries ramping up production of the appropriate ammunition,” adds the report’s author, Jack Watling. Ukraine will need a regular supply of shells that can vary widely even in the broad 155mm class, he warns. As current stockpiles of ammunition dwindle, the Ukrainians are already looking for new sources of supply. Sources say they were inspecting British foundries capable of making shells for 155mm artillery shells, such as those fired by NATO shells given to Kyiv, such as US-supplied M777s, French Caesars and German PzH 2000s. Enclosures must be manufactured to a high standard. BAE Systems manufactures the UK’s 155mm shells, but Ukrainian officials are understood to be keen to diversify their supplies, choosing different sources to minimize any production delays. BAE’s Washington foundry in Tyne and Wear manufactures the metal shells. They are then sent to the former Royal Ordnance Factory at Glascoed in Monmouthshire, Wales to be filled with high explosives. Exact figures on production capacity and the state of British military stockpiles are not made public, but there is no doubt that British officials are now having similar talks with the defense industrial base as their US counterparts. In the UK there is believed to be some scope to add offsets to production lines to increase supply, although some analysts say the basic 155mm rounds are not the critical bottleneck for Ukraine. “Newer, exotic 155mm munitions also experience delays for the same reason as MLRS missiles,” says Drummond, the defense analyst. “The production of small arms, medium caliber and tank ammunition has been expanded without much effort. “Many companies, such as BAE Systems, have increased their production.” So far there has been no need to increase the number of shifts at the munitions factories, Drummond says. “Overall, I don’t see any serious obstacle to replenishing ammunition stocks,” he adds. “The real issue is building tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles]. “The timeline is basically 36 months from placing an order to delivery.”
Leveling the playing field
With winter fast approaching, a three year lead time for brand new military vehicles is clearly impractical. This is one of the reasons that Western stockpiles of ready-to-use ammunition and vehicles are sent east: buying new and waiting for delivery from the factories is simply not an option for Ukraine. It’s a rosier story for Vladimir Putin’s forces, at least in terms of ammunition supply. The Russians have years of artillery ammunition at their disposal, according to a report last month from Russia. Russia fires 20,000 shells a day compared to Ukraine’s 6,000, it said. The use of drones and radar jamming has made their strikes particularly effective against Ukrainian positions, although Ukrainian forces have recently adapted by using decoy positions to draw Russian fire. Addressing this means we have the weapons available to destroy Russian military formations. Drummond says production of Javelins, NLAWs and “other complex weapons” is increasing accordingly. However, it does sound a note of caution, adding that there are “delays with high-performance items such as tokens and controller components.” “This particularly affects the M31 missiles for Chimari,” he says. Ukraine has received 16 of the US Himars systems, which have proven formidable for attacking Russian airfields and key strategic chokepoints such as bridges. But ammunition is expensive and in short supply. Himars, also known as the US M142 High Mobility Artillery Missile System, is essentially an armored truck with six rocket launcher tubes bolted to a flatbed trailer. Its operating concept is simple: launch missiles at a target, then quickly drive to a safe place. So-called “anti-battery fire,” targeting artillery batteries as they open, has become a real problem for the Ukrainians due to the abundance of Russian radars, sensor drones, and their own rapidly deploying artillery vehicles. Kheimari is one of the pieces of Western artillery leveling the field for the Ukrainians. However, Himars’ M31 missiles, made by Lockheed Martin, are much more complex than the truck that launches them. The missiles are guided by an inertial measurement unit supported by GPS, which means that each weapon has a complex computer system built into it. Each contains computer chips, antennas and processors, all of which are built to exacting standards so they can survive the stresses of launch at the speeds necessary to fly for the missile’s maximum range of 43 miles. In July, a retired US lieutenant general, Mark Hertling, estimated that the 16 Himars missile systems America sent to Ukraine could launch 192 missiles a day – equivalent to a year’s production in less than two months. The same missiles are also fired from the M270 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System launcher vehicle, which is the Himars’ armored and tracked older sibling.
