Some Tories see what they have called their “deal with the devil” worthwhile. After all, Johnson “finished Brexit” (apart from the bits, like the Northern Ireland protocol, that still aren’t “done”). However, his political epitaph will not only be about Brexit, as he was kicked out of Downing Street in disgrace after repeatedly breaking the rules on standards in public life. The qualities that endeared him to his party and many voters – as an anti-establishment figure who delivered Brexit – became his Achilles’ heel when both parties tired of bending the rules to protect cronies like Owen Patterson and Chris Pincher and they deny things that were true, like the Downing Street parties during the lockdown. After the backlash, we might have expected the Conservatives to move in the opposite direction, as parties often do when they change leaders. But it didn’t happen. The replacement candidate should have been Rishi Sunak, who offered stability, competence and a return to fiscal conservatism. But the 160,000 Tory members had other ideas. They preferred another figure with many of Johnson’s qualities in Liz Truss, who, despite joining the cabinet before Sunak became an MP, managed to portray herself as the change and support the former chancellor as a supporter of the status quo and of the “orthodoxy of the Ministry of Finance”. While offering change, Truss also positioned herself as “Continuation Boris”, correctly judging that the outgoing prime minister retained strong support from the Tory base. Sunak was seen as the backstabber with his resignation as chancellor (an unfair characterization because 60 ministers resigned, but one stuck). The contest was surprisingly bitter and divisive. The tone was set for fierce clashes during televised debates early in the election. The two candidates did not go head-to-head in the 12 inductions organized by the party, when they answered questions separately. By then, the damage was done and no one was going to mince their words. Normally, political reporters have to twist the arm of a leading campaign group to get an offer that beats their opponent. This time, punchless quotes landed in our emails on a daily basis. Even when it became clear that Sunak faced defeat, he did not tone down his attacks as the Truce camp had hoped, but turned up the intensity. Tras allies accused Sunak of a “scorched earth” policy that risked destroying the party. The blue-for-blue attacks have alarmed many Tory MPs and given Labor a gold mine for the next general election. They include Sunak’s warnings that under Truss, millions face impoverishment in the financial crisis, which would be a “moral failure” and that her “unfunded tax cuts” would fuel inflation and her higher borrowing would impose debt on future generations. After 12 years in power, the Tories have given the impression that they are tearing down their own brand. Liz Truss faces a tough task ahead (PA wire) Can the Tory family reunite and heal their wounds? In her favor is her not-so-secret weapon – her unity. Even some Truss critics will give her the benefit of the doubt. It is no coincidence that the party has been in power for 32 of the last 50 years and has been so for 60 years in the 20th ‘Tory century’. Although a legacy from Johnson is good – an over-70 Commons majority – Truss will face a major challenge in managing Tory MPs. Only 50 of the 357 members of the parliamentary party voted for her in the first round of the leadership election, while 88 preferred Sunak. She has now overtaken him, winning the support of 149 MPs to Sunak’s 132, after several belatedly joined her fold to boost their career prospects when polls gave her a commanding lead among members. But even now, around 200 Tory MPs have not publicly backed Truss. They include longstanding enemies that may be immune to unity appeals. Some who rallied behind Truss are sure to miss out when she chooses her cabinet. there won’t be enough jobs. More senior executives may be offered positions below what they think they deserve. Sunak will be a pivotal figure. He is not a natural rebel leader, in the way that Johnson was happy to undermine Theresa May to advance his leadership ambitions. Having been chastised by many Tory members for alleged disloyalty, Sunak would be reluctant to press the charge if he harbors hopes of a future leadership bid. He has hinted that differences with Truss are too deep for him to serve in her cabinet. Despite his denials, some Tory MPs expect him to leave politics. Truss will want to avoid Johnson’s chaotic style of government The members of the Sunak group who launched the strongest attacks on Truss, such as Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, could be in the desert. Truss can offer an olive branch to some of Sunak’s less vocal supporters in hopes of building bridges. He will try to bind the Tories to “one nation” by handing a cabinet post to Tom Tugendhat, although some of his supporters were surprised he backed Truss when he was dropped from the race. There is a danger that Tory moderates will see the new cabinet as a further “call to the right” and a repeat of Johnson’s mistakes in appointing super-loyalists instead of the “all talent” government promised by Truss. Johnson kicked out pro-EU Tories such as Dominic Grieve, David Gawke, Rory Stewart and Amber Rudd, and the shift to the right continued in the leadership election: surprisingly, a pro-Brexit Thatcherite Conservative in Sunnock was named “socialist” from the Race Camp. It is doubtful that voters will be enthusiastic about a right-wing prospectus at the next election, when Truss will not have two assets that Johnson had in 2019: Brexit as a live issue and Jeremy Corbyn. Truss will not want to be the ‘next Boris’ in a sense. He will want to avoid his chaotic, chaotic style of government. It will come with clear objectives, but turning them into policies, rather than being buffeted by events, will require iron will and determination, as well as a very strong top team of ministers and advisers. The test will be her response to the crisis of living standards and it will be immediate. There are real fears among Tory MPs that while it helps low-income households and delivers tax cuts that disproportionately help the better off, it will not do enough for the “squeezed middle”. The need to spend billions to help people and businesses with their bills will make it difficult for Truss to deliver on the £50bn promises it made during the competition. Her dilemma is that right-wing allies will want no retreat from her low-tax, low-regulation agenda, but to implement it and keep borrowing under control, she may have to squeeze public spending, which would not be popular with voters, especially the red wall. Boris Johnson during his last major political speech (PA wire) The challenge of managing Truss’s party will be made more difficult by Johnson’s presence on the backbenches. He wanted to beat Sunak, but his real choice for Tory leader was himself. He did not see Truss as his favored successor: he installed her as foreign secretary to provide a counterweight to Ms Sunak and, when she later added the Brexit pamphlet, her allies saw it as a poisoned chalice. Johnson has already rewritten history, weaving a narrative that he was needlessly overthrown in a coup. Never mind that 72 percent of the public had an unfavorable view of him and that no prime minister can survive without the trust of his MPs. Johnson’s “hasta la vista, baby” Commons farewell and declaration that his mission was “largely accomplished, for now” encouraged the idea that he would make a comeback, like his hero Winston Churchill, who returned six years after losing the 1945 election. Polls show many Tory members regret Johnson’s departure and Tory voters prefer him to both Truss and Sunak. His associates are trying to intimidate the Commons privilege committee, which is investigating whether he lied to parliament about Partygate (and could end his parliamentary career). Johnson’s state of Trumpian denial is dangerous for Truss and poisonous for the Tories, perpetuating the divisions he wants to end. If Truss falls on hard political times, as she is sure to during the financial crisis, Johnson’s students will be tempted to say she could have done better. Talk of a comeback would get louder. If the Tories faced electoral defeat, could they again lose an unpopular leader and turn in desperation to Johnson, as they did in 2019? Sensible Tory MPs would surely have none of this, fearing public reaction to the return of a leader who had resigned in disgrace? While I don’t think it will happen, the fantastic idea can’t be completely ruled out as long as it’s still in the minds of Johnson and co. This makes the already daunting task of Truss even more difficult. This is why some Tories believe that Truss will not become another Margaret Thatcher but a second Ian Duncan Smith. Like Truss, he enjoyed the support of only a third of Tory MPs in their final vote when he was elected in 2001. In the members’ ballot he also defeated a former chancellor who was more popular than him among MPs (Kenneth Clarke). Duncan Smith never won the confidence of his MPs, who overthrew him two years later. Ominously for Truss, one former minister told me: “I can see history repeating itself.” But we should not underestimate her determination to write a different version.
