The 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) natural gas connection runs under the Baltic Sea near St. Petersburg to northeastern Germany and was due to reopen on Saturday after several days of maintenance work. But state-controlled Gazprom said it had discovered “oil leaks” in a turbine during maintenance. He gave no timeline for when the pipeline would reopen. Although Siemens Energy – which normally services the turbines – said such a leak should not impede operation. The pipeline has historically delivered about a third of the natural gas exported from Russia to Europe, but was already operating at just 20% of capacity before flows were halted last week for maintenance. Rising energy costs linked to rising gas prices have already caused many energy-intensive industries to cut production and led European governments to pump billions into programs to help households stay afloat. The latest setback will leave European countries scrambling to find other energy sources and raises the prospect of energy crunch this winter. Prices will jump again, analysts believe, after the Kremlin-backed energy giant confirmed the pipeline would remain idle. “On Friday … the market had already priced in NordStream 1 (NS1) streams coming back,” Energy Aspects gas analyst Leon Izbicki said. “We expect a significantly stronger opening for the TTF on Monday.” The TTF, Title Transfer Facility, is a virtual trading point for natural gas. The impact of the latest cut will depend on Europe’s ability to attract natural gas from other sources, said Jacob Mandel, senior fellow for commodities at Aurora Energy Research. “Supply is hard to come by and it’s getting harder and harder to replace every bit of natural gas that doesn’t come from Russia,” he said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday that his country is preparing for a complete cutoff of natural gas deliveries from Russia. Germany, Europe’s biggest natural gas consumer, is in the second phase of a three-stage emergency plan to deal with lower supply. A transition to the third stage would lead to a restriction of the natural gas of the industry. Finland and Sweden announced plans on Sunday to offer billions of dollars in liquidity guarantees to power companies in their countries. Finland plans to offer €10 billion and Sweden plans to offer €250 billion. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe quickly launched plans to reduce its dependence on Russian fuel, turning to alternative suppliers of natural gas and other fuels and pushing for faster development of clean energy reserves. Germany has begun developing liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals to allow it to receive natural gas from global suppliers and move away from Russian gas imports. “There is a lot of room to replace it [Russian] natural gas with LNG imports for now, but when the weather is cold and demand starts to pick up in the winter in Europe and Asia, there is only so much LNG out there that Europe can import,” Mr Mandel said. Europe last week met its goal of filling its natural gas reserves by 80 percent by early November. EU reserves are currently 81% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, with Germany’s reserves at 85% full. Russian gas continues to flow to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine, but speculation is now mounting over whether that too could be stopped. “We are shifting the focus to [gas] … that continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine,” James Huckstepp, EMEA gas analyst at S&P Global Platts, said in a post on Twitter. “Only a matter of time…” Additional reporting by Reuters
